The Matador Archives

The Matador’s BCS National Championship Favorites

Friday, July 17th, 2009 at 11:26 am  
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The Matador can’t help but feel sorry for folks like Mr. Walker. So if you are reading this ‘Tione, go to Reno before your arraignment, sign some of those fake checks and place some money on the 2010 BCS National Championship game futures. If you go to jail, by the time you get out, you will have a little next egg.

Now, the favored to win the 2010 BCS National Championship Game is Florida at 2/1. It’s a solid bet, but before you jump on the Gator bandwagon, consider these other teams:

Texas (8/1): The Longhorns will have a potent offense and will simply win by outscoring their opponents. To be a solid contender, the defense must step up their play and pray opposing offenses have bad days.

Oklahoma (6/1): Oklahoma has a strong Heisman Trophy winner QB, two 1000 yard rushers in the backfield, two players with hands in TE Jermain Gresham and WR Ryan Broyles, but with all that talent, the Sooners have questions as to who will block for them since the O line is young, inexperienced, and untested. The defense returns 9 and showed signs of great improvement towards the end of the season and even held Florida below their scoring average.

Ohio State (11/1) & Penn State (35/1): The Big 10 hasn’t been getting much respect these days, but if any of these two teams go undefeated, the winner will be in the BCS National Championship game. I’m leaning towards Penn State simply because their schedule is fairly weak and they play Ohio State at home. JoePa could end the season with the championship trophy in hand.

Notre Dame (25/1): It pains me to say this, but ND is returning a very strong and seasoned offense. Weis will finally get his team back to where ND should be. This team has the schedule to go far. If they can upset USC, there will be BCS and possibly National Championship talk brewing in South Bend.

USC (7/1): It is inevitable USC will lose one game in the regular season. They have seven consecutive Pac 10 titles yet have only one BCS Title during that span. Either the team is overrated or they don’t get the respect they deserve. Anyway, with a new QB in Aaron Corp and an untested defense, this will certainly be an uphill battle.

The Matador previews the ACC

Monday, July 13th, 2009 at 10:28 am  
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This week, The Matador is predicting the winners of the ACC. Since 1992, Florida State and Virginia Tech have won a combined 15 ACC titles. Since Florida State and VaTech represent the Atlantic and Coastal divisions respectively, there is a good chance the two teams will meet in the ACC title game. But before I discuss that game, let’s look at some of the teams who will make some noise in the otherwise quiet, and what some call second tier, ACC.

Both the Atlantic and Coastal divisions are about as shallow as a toilet bowl. I’m going to go out on a limb here, and against pretty much every college football writer, to pick Maryland to challenge FSU for the Atlantic Crown. I give up on Clemson and C.J. Spiller (see last year’s game against Alabama and pretty much the rest of the season). They have QB issues, their LBs are not proven and it’s Clemson — they never live up to their potential. NC State will upset teams, but they are too young and thin at key positions to play consistently much less take the crown. BC is returning most of their starters, but with a new coach, new offense and new QB, it will be a long season for the Eagles. That brings us to Maryland. Ralph Friedgen has a good QB and team leader in Chris Turner. The receivers are experienced and are ready to play. Da’Rel Scott is poised to light up the running game. Maryland has been blessed with good recruiting. If this team can gel, Friedgen could rattle the ACC even if the critics pick them to be dead last.

Florida State has a solid O line and a great linebacker in Dekoda Watson. The reason they will fall is their brutal schedule. They are playing 11 bowl teams from 2008. Their away schedule is by far the toughest in the Atlantic with a cross-country trip to BYU, then games at BC, at North Carolina, at Clemson, at Wake, and finishing the season at the National Champ bound Florida Gators. Their D line is too weak and lacks experience to win week in and week out. Also, there are the intangibles: the face of this program is changing. Since when does an FSU player skip the NFL draft to study at Oxford (Kudos to Rolle, but this isn’t the typical act of an FSU player).

With that, this is the Terrapins time to shine in the Atlantic division and they will if they get over that first hurdle at Cal.

The Coastal division isn’t as complicated in my mind. VaTech will cruise again and win the division. In fact, VaTech has a the schedule to get them to the National Championship game. Their out of conference games include a road trip to Atlanta against Alabama and a home game against Nebraska. If VaTech wants to give the team and conference the respect they covet, they must win both of these games. Georgia Tech and North Carolina might have something to say about it as Georgia Tech is returning a strong offense and Carolina is returning a strong defense. However, neither team will take down VaTech. Also, UNC’s final record will be misleading as two wins will be against the Citadel and Georgia Southern — playing those teams doesn’t cut it.

Again, the most complete team in the ACC is VaTech led by Tyrod Taylor. The Matador is giving no love to Miami (Randy Shannon, it’s just not working out). The last time Miami won a league title was when they played in the Big East in 2003. Virginia’s Al Groh needs to figure out a way to put pressure on the ball, and I’m not sold on their version of the spread offense. As for Duke…….well, basketball is really their sport.

ACC Championship Game: Maryland v. VaTech

The Matador’s correct prediction: VaTech wins.

But does all this really matter? The one thing you can bet on for sure, the ACC will not produce a National Champion much less a contender.

The Matador Answers His Fan Mail

Friday, July 10th, 2009 at 10:00 am  
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Matador,

I saw your blog on the Big 10 on Deuce of Davenport, would be interested to get your read on Iowa. They played very well last season with several very close losses. Could they surprise this season? Decent QB, nice receiving corps and solid O-line. Great experience at LB and secondary. Tough schedule getting OSU, PSU and Wisconsin on the road but I am thinking they may be a nice ATS team this season. Any thoughts appreciated…

A Fan

The Iowa Hawkeyes had a successful and promising 2008 campaign and ended the season thumping South Carolina in the Outback Bowl 31-10. Fans should expect more of the same in 2009 as Kirk Ferentz is returning 14 starters (6 on offense and 8 on defense) led by seasoned QB Ricky Stanzi. The defense will be solid with a few exceptions at the line. There will be some concern about plugging up the middle. However, the linebackers are arguably the best in the conference next to Penn State’s and will wreak havoc for opposing offenses. Their secondary has 3 returning starters lead by Amari Spievey. The defensive line will have trouble against solid running teams, but will be able to prevent the deep ball. Karl Klug and Michael Daniels will have to step it up. The offense will miss Shonn Greene, but Jewel Hampton proved as a true freshman that he can run with the best of them. The senior line will provide huge holes for this 5’9 running back to get to the second level. I love Tony Moeaki and he has the potential to be one of the top TEs, but he is injury prone–so let’s hope he stays healthy. What worries me about Iowa is their QB situation. There is absolutely no depth at this position. If Stanzi goes down, this team will be toast. Also, there is still no true kick returner on special teams. Iowa must find one quick.

The irony of this team is they will be better than they were last year; however, this year’s schedule is much more difficult. Thus, The Matador is foreseeing a 9-3 regular season. They should win their first two games easily against Northern Iowa and Iowa State. Arizona will be a bit of a challenge, but the Pac 10 doesn’t fare well when they leave the comfort of their region (i.e., Oregon State getting torched by PSU in Happy Valley; Cal getting burned by Maryland in College Park; and, Stanford losing at Notre Dame). Iowa will have a tough time against PSU on the road as this is a revenge match for the Nittany Lions. The Lions will want to run this score up and Royster and Green will certainly expose Iowa’s weak line. Iowa will then get back to its winning streak against Arkansas State and Michigan. Iowa should beat Wisconsin; the Hawkeyes play terrible on the road, but should beat this weaker team. Unfortunately, Iowa’s next hurdle will be Michigan State — another road game. The Hawkeyes have had trouble at Spartan stadium this past decade. They cannot seem to win there. Iowa will quickly bounce back and beat Indiana and should squeak by Northwestern. Iowa will then visit the Buckeyes at the Horseshoe. Iowa has not played OSU in the past two seasons, but in the games played in ’05 and ’06, Iowa was crushed — outscored by a combined score of 69-23. Iowa will not fare well on this road test. Iowa will then conclude the season with a victory over Minnesota.

Now from a gambling perspective, Iowa will win at least 9 games this season (look for over/under at 8.0 and take the over). As for individual games, check back throughout the season. This is especially important because the entire offense rests on whether or not Stanzi stays healthy. I can tell you this much though, recently Iowa has not fared well ATS (2006; 2-10, 2007; 6-6, and 2008; 7-5). Additionally, Iowa has tremendous trouble winning on the road. They only beat one team in conference play last year on the road at Indiana.

Recap: Iowa wins 9 games.



The Matador visits Sophia Gardens

Wednesday, July 8th, 2009 at 9:15 am  
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For all you Philip Hughes fans, Australia is going to be all over England in this upcoming TEST match at Sophia Gardens. England, led by Kevin Pietersen, doesn’t stand a chance against the strong willed Australian team. Australia’s ICC ranking is #1 compared to the feeble English lads who rank #5. Tim Nielson will out coach Andy Flower and Australia will be victorious. The smart money is on Australia even though they are 4/5 on most sports books compared to England’s 37/20. The Matador knows this isn’t a good payoff, but my job is to provide the winners.

Bet smart and don’t bet above your head.

If you don’t know by now, I’m talking about cricket and Ashes 2009.

The Matador Praises the Big 10

Tuesday, July 7th, 2009 at 10:00 am  
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The top 3 biggest stadiums in college football are all home to Big 10 teams:
1. Beaver Stadium (Penn State): 107,282
2. Michigan Stadium: 106,201 (After 2009 renovations, will be biggest stadium)
3. The Horseshoe (Ohio State): 102,329
This is important because home field advantage is huge in college football. Good teams don’t lose at home.

The Big 10 has been hyped up because of their dominance in past decades. Recently, Ohio State’s two National Championship game defeats certainly did not help the league’s image. But this will change. If they go undefeated, the Big 10 Champion will likely go to the National Championship Game. The Big 10 has two strong teams in OSU and PSU and two or three other teams with a shot at that title. The dark horses to win would be Michigan State, Illinois or Iowa. These teams have the potential but they are missing key ingredients. Michigan State lost its workhorse in Ringer and doesn’t have an experienced QB. Illinois has a god of a recruiter in Ron Zook, but if that coach can’t win with Juice or Arrelious Benn, he isn’t going to win with anyone. Iowa lost its top running back to the NFL and Stanzi isn’t good enough to rely solely on his arm. To make matters worse, they have a schedule from hell. Iowa plays Arizona out of conference and has 3 brutal road games at Penn State, Michigan State and Ohio State. Playing on the road at all three stadiums is a tough task for any team to come out unscathed.

So this brings us to the true Big 10 battle. It comes down to Ohio State v Penn State.

Ohio State:
We will really learn about Ohio State after their second game. Playing USC at home is a revenge game and with a win, it will place them in the driver’s seat for the National Championship game. Aside from USC and possibly Penn State, OSU will be favored and will win all their other games. Ohio State does not have a difficult schedule as they only have 4 true road games. The road games at Indiana and Purdue will be like a practice and unless Michigan improves its offense, defense, special teams, and even the water boy, OSU will dominate the Wolverines. The toughest road opponent is Penn State. By Nov. 7th, Pryor will be well on his way into the season as a starter. Pryor’s throwing accuracy has been questioned all last season and this is the season to prove all the doubters wrong. This will be a challenge because OSU is very thin at WRs and will certainly miss the strength of Beanie Wells. OSU’s strong defensive line and a very experienced secondary will take OSU to the top. If this team can come together quickly, they will win the Big 10.

PSU:
Everyone is screaming that PSU lost its trio of awesome receivers. The fact is they did; however, no one is talking about their replacements. All the receivers are over 6 foot, and though not as fast as D. Williams, they can still run and catch with the best of them. Bracket is 6-6, Moye 6-5, Powell, 6-1, AJ Price 6-4, and Zug is 6-2. Not to mention, their starting and back-up TEs are absolutely amazing. The running back tandem of Royster and Green will rack up monstrous numbers. Where PSU may fall is there lack of depth at secondary. The secondary got torched against USC last year and they all graduated or moved on. In some respects, that could be a good thing. There are a lot of new faces in the secondary, but with Penn State’s very easy schedule, there is plenty of time to develop. Again, PSU will be strong on both the O and D lines. Also, they don’t call PSU “Linebacker U” for nothing. They are very deep in that position and everyone aside from opponents is anticipating Lee’s return. Looking at PSU’s schedule and factoring their weakness at secondary, they should still go undefeated at least until Nov. 7 because, aside from Illinois, all the other teams PSU plays are weak at throwing which will give the Lions an advantage.

Big 10 Champs: PSU and OSU are co-champs (they will both somehow lose 1 conference game)*

*If you have the dying urge to make a bet and pick one, go with PSU, they have a much softer schedule and their skill players are better than OSUs. PSU will also beat OSU in Happy Valley.

Next Up: The long lost ACC