Has it been a year already fellow thrill seekers? My how time flies. Last season, I actually did finish over .500 for my picks, which was pretty darn lucky I think. Can I do it again? We shall see. There’s a lot of games this week starting with the Thursday night opener and finishing up with double the normal Monday Night Football action with two games taking place. Where to begin?
For those of you new to the weekly Pick Em post, I will go through and pick each game of the week, either with the spread, money line or total points scored. The picks will be in all caps and in bold. I will finish the post with my Upset Special of the Week and the Lock of the Week, meaning you can skip to the bottom for the real good stuff if you’d like.
If you follow along with my picks, you probably aren’t very smart. That being said, I was over .500 in my picks last season meaning if you actually bet money and used all my picks last season, you made some money. Congrats.*
This weeks’ column is brought to you by Amanda of the Vikings cheerleading squad and by Fan Duel, where if you click through you can legally bet on fantasy football action. Full disclosure, I get a little cash if you do. Not a bad deal for all.
Today and today only, Deuce of Davenport is bringing you the way to almost sure-fire sports betting success! Its based off of an ancient African tradition medicine! Nearly guaranteed results! What is this secret? Well…you have to smoke a vulture’s brain.
Thats right, because vultures always seem to know when an animal is gonna drop dead, some people believe that if you smoke their brain, you receive their precognitive powers. How do you go about doing this? Well first, you must capture a vulture alive, then remove the head while it is still living so the “brain does not flow down into the spinal cord”, next remove the brain from the skull, let it dry, then roll it into a cigarette and smoke the brain, inhaling it deeply within your lungs…receiving all that crazy vulture insight all up in your shit.
Just remember kids, when smoking vulture brains you puff puff give, puff puff give! Don’t be fuckin’ up the rotation! Hank Goldberg would shoot your ass if you were pullin that shit with his vulture brains! BRAAAAAAAAAAAAINS!!!!!!
Last week we were a disappointing 7-8, although I should’ve been 8-7 since I would’ve picked Jacksonville had I known MJD was going to play, but that is the pitfalls in making your picks on Friday morning, so I’ll stick with the 7-8. Although you know, and I know, what the real play was there. The lock of the week (5-5 on the year) failed but the upset special won (4-6 on the year) and we are now 74-65 for the year, 53% so far, which means we need to go on a run to hit the magic 56% number we all strive for. Hopefully this week will be better. Lets get on to the picks. As always, all lines are from TheGreek. Hot cheerleader is Linda from the New York Jets. Scroll to the bottom if you want to skip to the Upset Special and the Lock of the Week.*
Cleveland at DETROIT -3.5
Well this is just the NFL equivalent of watching a cripple fight isn’t it? You feel sad for the two participants but you can’t help but watch anyway because hey…cripple fight, right? Its the NFL, you really cant help but watch every game you possibly can, even if it is this game of two sad excuses of NFL teams. If you must put action on this, I like the suddenly looking somewhat stable Lions to beat the constantly in turmoil Browns and to cover the field goal and then some spread. For some reason the Browns’ defense has not been playing that bad, they apparently missed the memo to suck for this season, but I just don’t trust their offense to score anything here.
BUFFALO +9 at Jacksonville
Yes, there is no logic here to this pick. ITS CRRRRAAAAZY! Who on earth would think that the Bills, who just fired their head coach Dick Jauron so he can concentrate becoming the completely dead instead of just the walking dead, could actually compete with the Jaguars who just ran all over the Jets, well I do ladies and gents. Take the Bills who will be so happy to finally play to win instead of playing not to lose like the did with “not really tricky at all” Dickie Jauron.
Pittsburgh at KANSAS CITY +10
Pittsburgh is without their defensive rock Troy Polamalu yet again and they are going seriously pass crazy even though their offensive line cannot pass block to save their lives. This game is and should be a get well game for the Steelers and they should win, but I dont like laying double digits to the home dog so the plan here is to take KC and the points and pray that not having Larry Johnson will be enough to allow the Chiefs to function like a real NFL team.
INDIANAPOLIS -1 at Baltimore
The Colts are a really really good football team, meanwhile the Ravens still have people thinking their defense is the one that won them a Super Bowl in 2000. That was 9 years ago people, wake up. They are a 5-4 team right now and looked wretched against the Browns last week. They could only score 1 offensive touchdown against them. That is bad, man, like crazy bad, Beastmaster bad.
Yeah, I am actually watching Beastmaster right now, it is such a bad movie but like the sucker I am, I am still watching it because I am too lazy to find something else on tv. Well that and I find that if there is anything on TV on that I actually care about when I am writing, I get ZERO work done. Funny how that works. I did get a little nostalgic for Marc Singer watching the new V on tv the other day though. I still don’t know if I actually like the new V or if I am just waiting for it to be as awesome as the old V seemed when I was like 8 years old. WTF is Marc Singer up to besides hitting the comic book conventions circuit? Also, Did you know Rip Torn is in Beastmaster? I certainly didn’t know that, but I, sir, am a moron. That guy must’ve had it rough as an actor before the Larry Sanders show, which, by the way, is possibly one of the top 5 greatest television comedies in my life time. Such an underrated show. Or maybe its just rated. At this point, with people like me talking it up its probably making it overrated. Whatever, lets move on, shall we?
ATLANTA +6.5 at New York Giants
The Giants are coming off a bye week and have lost 4 games straight with their secondary and quarterback both injured and struggling while the Falcons are as up and down as any team in the NFL. 2nd year QB Matty Ice is not looking so good this season after his breakout rookie year but his running game has been working for him lately so they could have a chance in this game even if Turner the Burner sits this one out. I wouldn’t pick the Falcons to win this game outright, but I cant see the Giants busting this one wide open. This pick here is a sharp pick if it works and it should…unless the Giants are healed in their secondary and Eli shows no ill effects from his foot thing. If that is the case, I am fucked.
SAN FRANCISCO +6.5 at Green Bay
Another road dog? What am I smoking? Well truthfully, nothing, but I am eating mozzarella sticks and pepperoni slices at the same time. Its like all the fun of pizza without the dough and sauce. You take one bite of the cheese stick and then take a couple pepperoni slices and it is meaty, cheesy tastiness. What is even better are those mozzarella/pepperoni rolls you can get in the cheese section of any grocery store. Its all done for you, you just have to cut it, or, like I do, just chomp down into that sucker and rip you off a piece of tasty meatcheese. There isnt much like snacking on meats and cheeses at 3am while you are trying to blog. You know you’ve entered a new stage in life when you pass on the chips or candy and use meat as your junk food. Its primal and yet refined at the same time. Its refimal.
Anyway, Green Bay is a mess right now and if you’ve been betting on them lately you are a braver person than I. I have no idea how they beat the Cowboys and I bet neither do they. Sure their sound bites all say the right thing, but inside, they have to be like “What the fuck just happened there? We’re still in this somehow! Hot damn!” The 49ers right now look downright scary with their running game and that is helping to mask the fact that Alex Smith is not and should not be a NFL quarterback. How is he not in the UFL? I gotta think Sexy Rexy or JP Losman could do a little better here. Take the 49ers and pray that Mike Singletary can get some pressure on Aaron Rogers since his line has more holes in it than my meth-head cousin’s brain.
Seattle at MINNESOTA -10.5
Big spread, biiiiiig spread. I have done pretty well betting against Seattle all year, especially on the road where they are 0-4. I like their streak of losing and my streak of winning when betting against them to continue here. Seattle’s defense stinks worse than my breath after eating mozzarella sticks and pepperoni all night…Mrs. Rage is not going to be happy when she catches a whiff of this. I’m not even sure if brushing my teeth and mouthwash is going to stop this from blasting her nostrils and making her visibly gag when i see her in the morning. Also, have you ever gotten liquid smoke on your hands? I used a little liquid smoke to flavor some turkey I was cooking up tonight (I live in a condo, no balcony, which means no grill, I needed some smokey flavor and I know it isnt the same but I have to use it anyway, leave me alone) and I got some of it on my hands and it wont go away. The downside of this is, my hands stink of bottled smokey flavoring, the upside is, my hands smell like delicious smoked meats. You take the good, you take the bad, you take them both and there you have…the facts of life. So, to sum up, my breath and my hands smell like smoked meats and cheese and take Minnesota.
Washington at DALLAS -11
Who in the hell thought the Redskins could win that game last week? Not I. My personal thanks to Kyle Orton, the Redskins MVP for the game. Their offense was lighting up the Redskins defense when he was at quarterback but once he injured his ankle, they could only muster 36 yards with the spleenless Chris Simms at the helm. Who would’ve thought that a spleen was an integral part of being a QB in the NFL. Lets look at his stats pre spleen removal and post spleen removal:
Pre Spleen: 19 games played, completed 59.1% of his passes, QB rating of 71.2 Post Spleen: 2 games played, 26% completions, QB rating…well it was 7.2 last week…that is bad.
After this small sample size my conclusions are that spleens are necessary for survival in the NFL. Wait I am just handed a note…Drew Bledsoe ruptured his spleen in like 2000, paving the way for Tom Brady to steal his job, and after his spleen got obliterated his stat lines were statistically better in Buffalo and Dallas than when he was with the Patriots. Ok, so maybe not having a spleen only hurts when you are Chris Simms and you suck. You have NOTHING on Major Applewhite, Simms! NOTHING!
NEW ORLEANS -11 at Tampa Bay
New Orleans has been playing it close lately with their opponents and because of that, this week, I like them to break out of their semi-slump and dominate. I say semi-slump because they still haven’t lost a game, they’ve just been playing in some squeakers. Ronde Barber can only do so much against the offense of the Saints. All the Saints receivers should run wild in this game.
Also, am I the only won in this world rooting for a Saints/Bengals superbowl? Who Dats vs Who Deys! Why don’t more teams do this? Someone needs to adopt Who ‘Dis? or Who Dont! or Who Dunnit! Or something.
Arizona at ST. LOUIS +9
The Cardinals have been playing pretty well lately but I like Steven Jackson to make this game competitive. I still cannot say how sorry I feel for that man. He must really love the game to put forth such effort every game for such a God awful team. I like their chances at home here to keep this game close and even possibly steal one away from the NFC Champs.
New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND -10.5
The Jets are frauds, frauds with a running game, but frauds nonetheless. I think the Patriots here do one of those no mercy style beatdowns on the Jets to make up for their close game against the Colts last week. There shouldn’t be any controversy on the final play of this game, unless its about the Patriots trying to run up the score.
TENNESSEE +4 at Houston
With Chris Johnson looking like the second coming of Walter Payton can anyone reasonably bet against the Titans right now? Their defense scored twice last week, they have the best running back in football and Vince Young is playing some very un-Vince Young like football right now. The Texans never seem to ever live up to their hype and even though they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game, their defense will not be prepared for Chris Johnson. Little known fact (especially do all you Deadspin readers) Chris Johnson’s middle name actually is Duan. How cool is that?
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati at OAKLAND +9.5
I just have to think at some point again, real soon, then Bengals will look like the Bungles. This might be it. On the road, with their #1 running back injured, against a team with absolutely nothing to lose…and they just signed the ultimate locker room disaster Larry Johnson. I smell UPSET OF THE WEEK material game right here! I need to hit up a sports bar this Sunday so I can watch this game I think. Watching the Raiders is like watching a NASCAR event, you watch it for the crashes, and crashes in this case mean you watch it waiting for Tom Cable to pull a Woody Hayes or Buddy Ryan and just punch the living shit out of someone.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
PHILADELPHIA -3 at Chicago
Even the Eagles cant mess this game up. The Bears simply are a team lacking in talent right now. Their offensive line is a disaster and their vaunted defense from years past is a shell of its former self. Meanwhile, if Andy Reid could just get out of his way and stop making game planning so complicated, the Eagles could beat anyone in the league. Take the Eagles and the 3 points, this one is a gimme.
*Deuce of Davenport is only doing this column for entertainment purposes only, you’d be a fool to actually follow any of this advice and/or these picks. We accept no responsibility for anyone actually gambling with these picks.
This is going to be one long season, last week was another totally average week, with your boy Chimp going 7-7, losing the upset special and winning the lock of the week. Overall, I am 32-29 and 2-2 on the Locks of the Week and 1-3 on the Upset Specials. Still a whole lot of room to make some money and if you were for some reason betting with me here, you would probably be around even. But, we can do better, and we certainly will this week. I have information that will make this week the ultimate lock week of all weeks! READ ON! As always, all lines are from TheGreek. Hot cheerleader is Abbie M from the Baltimore Ravens. Scroll to the bottom if you want to skip to the Upset Special and the Lock of the Week.*
MINNESOTA -10 at St. Louis
You know a team is bad when I am willing to lay 10 points against a home team on a team playing on a short week due to them having just played their guts out on Monday night. St. Louis is that bad. If this were a college game, there would be a 30 point spread. These teams are mirror images of each other. If you wanted a real life analogy, the Vikings are a NASA shuttle lifting off to go visit the space station, while the Rams are the rocket that is on a death mission to the Moon to literally punch the moon in its fucking face. You gotta take the Vikings here, their D will pummel whomever is quarterbacking the Rams into the ground like a NASA rocket into the moon…I cannot use that story enough apparently! THIS IS MY SUPERSONIC PICK OF THE WEEK because you will be running so fast to make this bet you will generate a Goddamn SONIC BOOM!!!
Dallas at KANSAS CITY +9
Sure Tony Romo is a screw-up, they have average wide receivers, all their running backs are banged up and their defense is garbage….wait…no do not ignore any of that information. As bad as Kansas City is and they are pretty horrible, I actually think they have a chance at home against this Dallas squad. Not a good chance, but a good enough chance to cover 9 points here. Take the Chiefs, put a good amount of money on it, then go take this sick ass Makers Mark Master Distiller’s Experience. You get a friggin 24 karat bottle of your own booze, literally your face is etched onto the bottle, its YOURS! THIS IS MY 130 PROOF KILLER BUZZ PICK OF THE WEEK!
Washington at CAROLINA -3.5
Yeah, so far I am 1-0 when picking against my Redskins like I said I would the rest of the season and I think I am going to increase my winning streak to 2 games this week. Both teams are desperate, one team will win.
My information this week says the ‘Skins have hired a man that was recently pulling bingo balls out of a barrel for a church to be the salvation for their offense. How anyone can ever bet on them is beyond me. If you live in the DC area like me, you should take Carolina and when you win buy yourself a nice big HD television and some NFL Sunday Ticket so you never have to watch the Redskins again. GOD they suck.
Tampa Bay at PHILADELPHIA -14.5
I must be crazy…or AM I? This line is actually up to 16 in some places and the action on Tampa has been pretty steady even with the line moves. No one thinks the Bucs can actually win this game, but they question whether the Eagles can actually put up the points to cover this line. I’m here to assure you, they will. Sure McNabb is just coming back, but after the performance that Kevin Kolb had the last two weeks and Mike Vick’s ever increasing appearances on the field, Donovan will want to desperately piss all over the Buccaneers to assert his dominance and claim this football team for himself, once and for all…again…and just for this season. No way McNabb is here next year. Take the Eagles and when you win, piss all over your house, just to make a point. Claim that territory.
NY JETS -1 at Miami
Look for the Jets’ defense to terrorize Chad Henne into making a mistake on the few plays he is allowed to throw the ball. The other 80% of the time when the Dolphins are running, they will be bottled up tighter than a jar of some tasty Rao’s Vodka Sauce. Have you ever had this shit? It is possibly some of the greatest, store bought and mass produced red sauce on the planet. Mrs. Rage made some tasty Spaghetti alla Carbonara that was pushed over the top by the application of this sauce. Oh my GOD was so good I actually regurgitated it a few times in my mouth after the meal just to taste it again…or maybe that was just acid reflux…either way it was just as tasty the second time. Buy it, you cannot go wrong with it, much like you cannot go wrong taking the Jets here. This is my HOLY SHIT I ACTUALLY ATE 3/4 OF A BOX OF PASTA AND DAMN NEAR A PACKAGE OF BACON AND I STILL WANT MORE PICK OF THE WEEK!!!
Oakland at NY Giants UNDER 38
Look, the Raiders havent let anyone put up over 29 points on them this season and they haven’t scored a touchdown in 2 weeks with 9 points being their total offensive output in that span. The Raiders shut out a Tampa offense that is actually better than the Raiders. All this adds up to another really, really, low scoring game. Unless the Giants win 39-0, with an injured Eli Manning and a running game that will run the clock down quick, this game is going under. Take the Giants, its my Super Mega Ultra Special Upside Jigga Generic-Cliched Words pick of the week.
Cincinnati at BALTIMORE -9
I have inside information on this game that YOU NEED TO KNOW…and if i had a 1-800 number I could let you know, but I don’t so you will have to trust me. This is my 4 star, game of the year pick! Home team covers this large 9 point spread. The Bengals are paper…bengals…um yeah and they will be exposed this as such! Take Baltimore -9, thats right the RAVENS giving 9 points is your pick! Bet this right and you will be set to gamble the REST OF THE YEAR…HON!
PITTSBURGH -10.5 at Detroit
Yea, the Steelers should cruise this week and they might be getting the heart and soul of their D back when Troy Polamalu returns. Detroit has been beat down by more than 10 points in all 3 of their losses…and why not make it 4 for 4? By the way, you notice how large the spread are this week? So far we’ve had a 10, two 9′s, two 14.5, now a 10.5. I mean, what happened to parity? Jesus! Take the Stillers, eat all the Primanti Bros you want after you win, you’ll need it to absorb the alcohol you will ingest so you can stand to watch this blowout.
ATLANTA +2.5 at San Francisco
San Fran has surprised many with its 3-1 record, beating the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks and losing to the Vikings by just 3 points. Meanwhile Atlanta is coming off a bye week at 2-1, losing once to the Patriots…San Fran is getting way too much respect here. This is a gimme, take the Falcons, the 49ers are impressing people, but lets not crown them yet. The Falcons are a solid team and should win this game out right. Take the Falcons, ITS MY FIVE POINTED STAR DEVIL MAY CARE PICK OF THE WEEK!
NEW ENGLAND -3 at Denver
I mean really, in what would should the Patriots ever be favored by just 3 points against the Broncos? I mean, these Broncos barely beat the Bengals and have beat the Cowboys, Raiders and Browns…hardly stout competition. Belichik taught Josh McDaniels all he knows…except how to beat the King. Not this week for the brash young coach, like the late James Brown said “I taught them everything they know…not everything I know.” Take the Patriots, this is my GET UP PAPA’S GOT A BRAND NEW BAG SEX MACHINE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE MAKE ME WANNA KISS MYSELF PICK OF THE WEEK!
Houston at Arizona UNDER 50
Yeah, everyone and their mother thinks this game is going to be some 35-29 high scoring fiasco, but I am not buying that hype. Arizona is at home and coming off a bye week allowing them 2 weeks to prepare for this offense. This game will have plenty of fireworks, but its not going above 50 points total. Fade the public and take the under safely here peoples. If I had a fade of the week, this would be it.
Jacksonville at Seattle
I can only find this line at one sportsbetting site and they have Jacksonville favored by 3. The rest of the sports gambling world it is off the board due to Hasselbeck’s questionable status right now. So, i’m not going to do a huge writeup about this game and I am not going to include it in my picks for this week. But, if I had to make a pick, I’d take Jacksonville, even if the spread is 3.
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
CLEVELAND +210 at Buffalo
Well isnt this game a stinker? Toss a coin, I dunno. Seriously, no team deserves to win this game. Buffalo is favored by 6 at home and they need to win because when they dont, the crime rate jumps in Buffalo. Meanwhile, the Browns are winless and traded their former best receiver away for a couple of gritty role players to shake things up a little. Will it work? Who knows. What I do know is, i don’t feel confident in the Bills winning by a touchdown, nor do I feel confident the Browns will let them. No, where I see value in this matchup is the moneyline bet. +210 is just juicy enough to want to gamble since the Browns do actually have a chance here, not a good chance, but a double my damn money chance if they win. Take the Browns, gamble a little to double your cash and when you do, find me and shake my hand…if you dont, please dont punch me in the face. THIS IS MY DO NOT DARE PUNCH ME IN THE FACE PICK OF THE WEEK! Oh…also the Upset Special seeing as I am picking a 6 point underdog to win outright. Trapper, this one’s for you.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 at Tennessee
I am officially done with the Titans like I am done with the Redskins. Every week I bet on them to break out of this slump and every week they disappoint me. Obviously, Jim Schwartz was a fucking genius and his absence is a void that cannot be filled by any other mortal being. Screw this team, take the Colts, Peyton Manning is playing the best football of his career, their defense is getting healthier every second, they have 2 running backs and 3 receivers playing exceptionally well, their offensive line is fantastic…how are they only favored by 3.5? You know what this means? LOCK OF THE WEEK. Thats right…i just did that. And while you’re in Nashville watching your Titans lose, hit up Tootsie’s Orchid Lounge because no trip to that city is complete without it.
*Deuce of Davenport is only doing this column for entertainment purposes only, you’d be a fool to actually follow any of this advice and/or these picks. We accept no responsibility for anyone actually gambling with these picks.
Brutal week last week as I went 8-8. I am now 0 for 2 on my Picks of the Week and 1-1 on my Upset Specials. Overall, I have a lot of ground to make up on those. For the season, I am a mediocre 16-15 on my picks, which would not cover your juice if you were using these, so I must step it up for you, my non-paying blog readers. That’s right, I do it for you. However, my friends, this week…is looking like one where you can make some cash for sure, so lets get into it. As always, all lines are from TheGreek. Hot cheerleaders are twins Larisa and Marisa from the Houston Texans. Scroll to the bottom if you want to skip to the Upset Special and the Lock of the Week.
TENNESSEE +3 at New York Jets
Its been a feel good story so far this season for the Jets. Their rookie QB is making just enough plays and not making just enough mistakes to win games. They challenged then knocked in the teeth of the Patriots last week and their defense seems to be giving offenses fits. Tennessee, however, is the hard luck team of the year right now. They had Houston on the mat at 21-7 before their epic second quarter collapse and they still had a chance to win the game late. They also took defending super bowl champion Pittsburgh to overtime in the opening NFL game. This is not a bad team, they finished 13-3 last year and 10-6 the year before. They are not going 0-3. Take this pick and take it hard, hit it like Hines Ward would do to Keith Rivers’ face again.
Jacksonville at HOUSTON -4
Houston has the worst defense in the NFL, according to the NFL’s stats. Jacksonville has the 9th worst. So it is entirely possible that David Garrard actually has a decent week this week and beats the Titans. Personally, I wouldn’t bet on this game, but I think that the Texans offensive firepower will be too much for the Jaguars D and they wont be able to stop the Texans’ big play potential. Vegas thinks that people will think this game is going to be high scoring so they set the over at 47. If the score gets that high, it favors Houston in a big way. No way Jacksonville wins in a shoot-out. Take Houston and the points, when you win this bet, your friends will think you are a genius, when really, it is me…er…I…who am…er…is…uh…moving along…
Kansas City at PHILADELPHIA -9
Yes, this is a lot of points. Generally in the NFL you dont want to give a lot of points when a team could possibly be starting its #2 quarterback and #2 running back. But, here’s why you should. 1) The Chiefs are horrible and could be this year’s Detroit Lions. 2) The Eagles actually are thinking of resting Westbrook, not because he’s too injured to play, but because they don’t think they really need him this week to win because of the aforementioned reason 1 and the upcoming reason 3. 3) Backup QB Kolb wasn’t that bad last week and backup RB Lesean McCoy is probably better than starting RB Brian Westbrook. 4) The Eagle’s D is still one of the NFL’s top 10 defenses. That’s all you need to know, well except that when you win this game, women will run to you like one of Michael Vick’s dogs that wasn’t fed for a week. They can smell a winner a mile away. Note, I said winner and not wiener. See what I did there? Didn’t opt for the cheap joke…no reason to with the money we’ll be making this week.
Cleveland at Baltimore UNDER 38.5
For one to lose this under, you have to assume that both teams are going to actually score points. I, for one, do not believe the Browns will score a single point in this game, therefore, the under is the way to go here. Also, in a battle of really disgusting cities, Baltimore is better. They have that Ace of Cakes guy on TV. Who does Cleveland have, Drew Carey on the Price is Right? That guy is an abortion. He is pretty much the exact opposite of Bob Barker. Actually, before the hired him, at the production meeting, they must’ve just made a list of people that were THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF BOB BARKER and Drew Carey had to have been the top of the chart to host the show. Its the only way they thought it was a good idea, because it just isnt. I need cool smarmy, not creepy fat guy smarmy. Not the same, just terrible, and I’m saying this after he’s grown on me a bit. You should’ve heard my opinions about that fat bastard when he first took over.
WASHINGTON -6.5 at Detroit
Yeah, everyone and their mother is picking Detroit on this one. Some people will say that i’m fading the public here, but you know and I know better. I am a homer and this is the homer pick to end all homer picks. I’m saying it right here, right now…if the Washington Redskins do not beat the Lions by a touchdown, I will not pick them again this season. No matter how juicy the line is, I will have no faith in this team. NONE. Take the Redskins and the points on the road. Detroit is desperate but not as desperate as a team with Dan Snyder’s itchy trigger finger on the “FIRE THEM ALL” button. Plus their lackluster offense shouldn’t be able to score that much against the Redskins D and Stafford will be good for 1 or 2 INTS. Yes CJ is amazing, but he can’t do it alone. The ‘skins should’ve put up at least 21 points on St. Louis last week, they can do it this week. Please God let this happen…
GREEN BAY PACKERS -6.5 at St. Louis
Ok, so I blew it last week picking the Packers, I admit it. This week however, the Pack goes on the road to take on one of the worst teams in the league. I’m sure this line is affected by the 2 point loss to the Redskins last week, but we know better, right? The Pack should light up this Rams team and they will not be able to keep Aaron Rogers out of the end zone like they did poor Jason Campbell….mostly because the Packers have a coach who actually knows how to call plays. Take all of your watches, jewelry, compact discs and dvds and send them to the local pawn shop, you’ll need that cash to load up on this one. Once you win, you can go out and buy better stuff than that garbage you gave up for peanuts. Your lifestyle demands you do this.
San Francisco at MINNESOTA -7
Lot of action on San Fran in this one, so much so that the line has dropped from -8 to -6.5 in some places. Not exactly sure why though. Frank Gore is banged up and its not like he or Glenn Coffee are going to find any running room against the Vikings D. Brett Favre has been in “game manager” mode the first two weeks, but they are just waiting for a moment to unlock the cage and set the gunslinger Favre free. San Fran has been a feel good 2-0 so far this year, but their unbeaten streak ends this week. Take the Vikes, bet enough so that when you win you can personally fly down to Washington DC and shake my damn hand for providing you with the insight you need to maintain the quality of life that you are used to.
ATLANTA +4 at New England
Ok, when will people learn that New England is not what they used to be and neither is Atlanta, for that matter. This line should be flip flopped the way these two teams have played the first two weeks of the year. The line is what it is because people expect New England to break out of their funk and be what they used to be, well, guess what, they arent. Their offense cannot move the ball on the ground, their quarterback is a couple months away from major knee rehab, and their defense has gotten old QUICK while the kids that are replacing the veterans just aren’t very good yet. It may all work out for the Patriots, they could get by on cunning, guile and veteran savvy for most the year, but not this week. The Falcons have a legitimate offense that can score on anyone while their defense has dramatically improved this season. One team is trending up, one is trending down, take the one going up, the Falcons, and the points, they are mana from the Gods.
CHICAGO +1 at Seattle
Ok, so Hasselbeck has a bad rib and the Seahawks are still favored? Don’t get it, not even trying to get it, just trying to run to the bookie as soon as possible. First I must do a few things such as, refinance the house, sell my car, my wedding ring, my dog and if i had any children, they would have to go too…THEN i will have enough cash to throw at this monster. The almighty God of gambling named GAMBLOR is beckoning you to make this bet. If you listen to Him, you will be richly rewarded with one hell of a buzz from watching this game on Direct Ticket and, more than likely, it is possible for you to double your net worth in just one 3 hour game.
New Orleans at Buffalo UNDER 51.5
I am predicting it right here, this is the week that the Saints high flying points scoring offense hits a snag and they dont go over the over. Not that the Bills D is that good, they are opportunistic, but they arent good. No, the reason is because with Mike Bell injured, Pierre Thomas barely recovered from an injury and Reggie Bush being Reggie Bush, the Saints will not be able to run the ball at all, making their one dimensional offense even more one dimensional, allowing the Bills to tee off on the pass. With Fred Jackson running the ball and Trent Edwards dinking and dunking all over, the Bills’ ball control offense won’t allow the kinds of high scores we’ve seen in the past from the Saints. Take the Under and count your blessings that I was here to save you from picking one of these teams against the spread.
MIAMI +6 at San Diego
San Diego lost their mammoth DTJamal Williams for the season on the IR and they are going up against one of the running-est (i just made that word up WOO HOO!) teams in football in the Dolphins. Sure Rivers can put points up on anyone, but LT is still hurt leaving the Dolphins D one less person to care about. I’m not saying that Miami wins this one, I doubt they will, but I do believe that San Diego isn’t going to win this by 6 points. Seems more like a 3 point game to me. Take this advice and when you win, please buy me a ticket out to Vegas, round trip…I can take care of the hotel room myself, but flights out there are pricey as hell these days. Damn!
Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI +4
I know you probably aren’t happy with this one, but let me change your mind. For one, I dont think last week against Green Bay was a fluke for the Bengals. Now, I dont think the Pack is as good as the Steelers should be, no, but the Steelers are a team with issues that we should not overlook here, especially with them on the road. One, they have a very limited running game right now. Who knows, it could blow up, but the Bengals run D has been surprisingly decent so far this year giving up just 82 yards a game. Add that to no Troy Polamalu in the defensive backfield and Palmer to Ochocinco could be in effect the entire game. If I were a betting man, I might pick the Bengals outright at +170…but I’m not so take the points and count your winnings in a Scrooge McDuck-like money bin when I am right. DENVER -1 at Oakland
Only reason I am taking Denver here is because their defense has been doing everything right for them to win games and I don’t see that stopping against an offense prone to so many mistakes as the Raiders. This line is probably good to up to 4 points, but with Denver as a slight fave, you can take advantage and bet it medium-hard like…like…like i dunno what actually is medium-hard. If you can tell me what is medium-hard, write in and let me know. I know what wont be medium-hard though…your dickus after you win this mother. Nail it shut.
Indianapolis at Arizona UNDER 48
I struggled with this one, I really did. Both teams are definitely capable of winning this game. Indy is the most unimpressive 2-0 team in the league (next to Denver i guess) and Arizona, well they showed last week why they made it to the super bowl (their offense can be explosive, like nitroglycerin level combustion type shit). This game however, I think there will be a lot of field goals, rather than TDs, keeping the score down. Why do I think that? NO REASON WHATSOEVER. I just had to make a pick to placate you asses. WHAT DO YOU WANT FROM ME? BLOOD? …..ok….ok…just take the Under and we’ll call it a day.
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
CAROLINA +9 at Dallas
Dallas’ defense has 0 sacks on the year, gives up on average 129 yards and 1 TD a game on the ground to running backs and has allowed 303 yards and 1 1/2 TD per game to quarterbacks. What do I smell here? I smell a get healthy game for Carolina and the UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK! Even if Dallas wins their 2nd game at home, there is no way their defense keeps this score to 9 points. They will be lucky if they win by a field goal here, if they win at all. There are very few defenses out there that Jake Delhomme can feel comfortable playing right now, but this has to be one of them. Sure, Carolina’s D isnt anything to write home about right now, but Tony Romo will always screw up somehow and find a way to keep this game close. Take the road dog and never look back, don’t look back because you might get shot (thanks Truthaboutit)…speaking of that, here’s a musical interlude before the Lock of the Week.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 at Tampa Bay
Look, no bones about it (the fuck does that mean anyway?), Tampa Bay is a really, and I am talking REALLY, bad professional football team. If Byron Leftwich is your starting quarterback, because he’s actually better than everyone else on your team, then you have a bad team. When your 3rd string running back, coming off of two catastrophic knee injuries on the same knee, beats out a high priced free agent acquisition and one other person for the starting tailback job…you have a BAD football team. Meanwhile, Eli keeps finding newer and younger people to throw the ball to and dammit, he’s actually turning into a decent football player. Their running backs are fantastic, the line does its job admirably and their defense is one of the tops in the league. Why the hell is this line under a touchdown? Hammer it. Hammer it into the ground. Make your bookie bend to your will. Take them to the cleaners for all the times that they took money that was rightfully yours. Take the Giants for God’s sake.
And while you’re in NYC, celebrating your win, hit up my favorite bar in the LES, Local 138 on Ludlow St (Stanton & Rivington). You might even find Mustafa there sucking down his 10thStrongbow of the night. No midgets or nothing, but they do have a burger joint next door with some tasty ass food. Get the fries…they are worth the calories.