Brutal week last week as I went 8-8. I am now 0 for 2 on my Picks of the Week and 1-1 on my Upset Specials. Overall, I have a lot of ground to make up on those. For the season, I am a mediocre 16-15 on my picks, which would not cover your juice if you were using these, so I must step it up for you, my non-paying blog readers. That’s right, I do it for you. However, my friends, this week…is looking like one where you can make some cash for sure, so lets get into it. As always, all lines are from TheGreek. Hot cheerleaders are twins Larisa and Marisa from the Houston Texans. Scroll to the bottom if you want to skip to the Upset Special and the Lock of the Week.
TENNESSEE +3 at New York Jets
Its been a feel good story so far this season for the Jets. Their rookie QB is making just enough plays and not making just enough mistakes to win games. They challenged then knocked in the teeth of the Patriots last week and their defense seems to be giving offenses fits. Tennessee, however, is the hard luck team of the year right now. They had Houston on the mat at 21-7 before their epic second quarter collapse and they still had a chance to win the game late. They also took defending super bowl champion Pittsburgh to overtime in the opening NFL game. This is not a bad team, they finished 13-3 last year and 10-6 the year before. They are not going 0-3. Take this pick and take it hard, hit it like Hines Ward would do to Keith Rivers’ face again.
Jacksonville at HOUSTON -4
Houston has the worst defense in the NFL, according to the NFL’s stats. Jacksonville has the 9th worst. So it is entirely possible that David Garrard actually has a decent week this week and beats the Titans. Personally, I wouldn’t bet on this game, but I think that the Texans offensive firepower will be too much for the Jaguars D and they wont be able to stop the Texans’ big play potential. Vegas thinks that people will think this game is going to be high scoring so they set the over at 47. If the score gets that high, it favors Houston in a big way. No way Jacksonville wins in a shoot-out. Take Houston and the points, when you win this bet, your friends will think you are a genius, when really, it is me…er…I…who am…er…is…uh…moving along…
Kansas City at PHILADELPHIA -9
Yes, this is a lot of points. Generally in the NFL you dont want to give a lot of points when a team could possibly be starting its #2 quarterback and #2 running back. But, here’s why you should. 1) The Chiefs are horrible and could be this year’s Detroit Lions. 2) The Eagles actually are thinking of resting Westbrook, not because he’s too injured to play, but because they don’t think they really need him this week to win because of the aforementioned reason 1 and the upcoming reason 3. 3) Backup QB Kolb wasn’t that bad last week and backup RB Lesean McCoy is probably better than starting RB Brian Westbrook. 4) The Eagle’s D is still one of the NFL’s top 10 defenses. That’s all you need to know, well except that when you win this game, women will run to you like one of Michael Vick’s dogs that wasn’t fed for a week. They can smell a winner a mile away. Note, I said winner and not wiener. See what I did there? Didn’t opt for the cheap joke…no reason to with the money we’ll be making this week.
Cleveland at Baltimore UNDER 38.5
For one to lose this under, you have to assume that both teams are going to actually score points. I, for one, do not believe the Browns will score a single point in this game, therefore, the under is the way to go here. Also, in a battle of really disgusting cities, Baltimore is better. They have that Ace of Cakes guy on TV. Who does Cleveland have, Drew Carey on the Price is Right? That guy is an abortion. He is pretty much the exact opposite of Bob Barker. Actually, before the hired him, at the production meeting, they must’ve just made a list of people that were THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF BOB BARKER and Drew Carey had to have been the top of the chart to host the show. Its the only way they thought it was a good idea, because it just isnt. I need cool smarmy, not creepy fat guy smarmy. Not the same, just terrible, and I’m saying this after he’s grown on me a bit. You should’ve heard my opinions about that fat bastard when he first took over.
WASHINGTON -6.5 at Detroit
Yeah, everyone and their mother is picking Detroit on this one. Some people will say that i’m fading the public here, but you know and I know better. I am a homer and this is the homer pick to end all homer picks. I’m saying it right here, right now…if the Washington Redskins do not beat the Lions by a touchdown, I will not pick them again this season. No matter how juicy the line is, I will have no faith in this team. NONE. Take the Redskins and the points on the road. Detroit is desperate but not as desperate as a team with Dan Snyder’s itchy trigger finger on the “FIRE THEM ALL” button. Plus their lackluster offense shouldn’t be able to score that much against the Redskins D and Stafford will be good for 1 or 2 INTS. Yes CJ is amazing, but he can’t do it alone. The ‘skins should’ve put up at least 21 points on St. Louis last week, they can do it this week. Please God let this happen…
GREEN BAY PACKERS -6.5 at St. Louis
Ok, so I blew it last week picking the Packers, I admit it. This week however, the Pack goes on the road to take on one of the worst teams in the league. I’m sure this line is affected by the 2 point loss to the Redskins last week, but we know better, right? The Pack should light up this Rams team and they will not be able to keep Aaron Rogers out of the end zone like they did poor Jason Campbell….mostly because the Packers have a coach who actually knows how to call plays. Take all of your watches, jewelry, compact discs and dvds and send them to the local pawn shop, you’ll need that cash to load up on this one. Once you win, you can go out and buy better stuff than that garbage you gave up for peanuts. Your lifestyle demands you do this.
San Francisco at MINNESOTA -7
Lot of action on San Fran in this one, so much so that the line has dropped from -8 to -6.5 in some places. Not exactly sure why though. Frank Gore is banged up and its not like he or Glenn Coffee are going to find any running room against the Vikings D. Brett Favre has been in “game manager” mode the first two weeks, but they are just waiting for a moment to unlock the cage and set the gunslinger Favre free. San Fran has been a feel good 2-0 so far this year, but their unbeaten streak ends this week. Take the Vikes, bet enough so that when you win you can personally fly down to Washington DC and shake my damn hand for providing you with the insight you need to maintain the quality of life that you are used to.
ATLANTA +4 at New England
Ok, when will people learn that New England is not what they used to be and neither is Atlanta, for that matter. This line should be flip flopped the way these two teams have played the first two weeks of the year. The line is what it is because people expect New England to break out of their funk and be what they used to be, well, guess what, they arent. Their offense cannot move the ball on the ground, their quarterback is a couple months away from major knee rehab, and their defense has gotten old QUICK while the kids that are replacing the veterans just aren’t very good yet. It may all work out for the Patriots, they could get by on cunning, guile and veteran savvy for most the year, but not this week. The Falcons have a legitimate offense that can score on anyone while their defense has dramatically improved this season. One team is trending up, one is trending down, take the one going up, the Falcons, and the points, they are mana from the Gods.
CHICAGO +1 at Seattle
Ok, so Hasselbeck has a bad rib and the Seahawks are still favored? Don’t get it, not even trying to get it, just trying to run to the bookie as soon as possible. First I must do a few things such as, refinance the house, sell my car, my wedding ring, my dog and if i had any children, they would have to go too…THEN i will have enough cash to throw at this monster. The almighty God of gambling named GAMBLOR is beckoning you to make this bet. If you listen to Him, you will be richly rewarded with one hell of a buzz from watching this game on Direct Ticket and, more than likely, it is possible for you to double your net worth in just one 3 hour game.
New Orleans at Buffalo UNDER 51.5
I am predicting it right here, this is the week that the Saints high flying points scoring offense hits a snag and they dont go over the over. Not that the Bills D is that good, they are opportunistic, but they arent good. No, the reason is because with Mike Bell injured, Pierre Thomas barely recovered from an injury and Reggie Bush being Reggie Bush, the Saints will not be able to run the ball at all, making their one dimensional offense even more one dimensional, allowing the Bills to tee off on the pass. With Fred Jackson running the ball and Trent Edwards dinking and dunking all over, the Bills’ ball control offense won’t allow the kinds of high scores we’ve seen in the past from the Saints. Take the Under and count your blessings that I was here to save you from picking one of these teams against the spread.
MIAMI +6 at San Diego
San Diego lost their mammoth DT Jamal Williams for the season on the IR and they are going up against one of the running-est (i just made that word up WOO HOO!) teams in football in the Dolphins. Sure Rivers can put points up on anyone, but LT is still hurt leaving the Dolphins D one less person to care about. I’m not saying that Miami wins this one, I doubt they will, but I do believe that San Diego isn’t going to win this by 6 points. Seems more like a 3 point game to me. Take this advice and when you win, please buy me a ticket out to Vegas, round trip…I can take care of the hotel room myself, but flights out there are pricey as hell these days. Damn!
Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI +4
I know you probably aren’t happy with this one, but let me change your mind. For one, I dont think last week against Green Bay was a fluke for the Bengals. Now, I dont think the Pack is as good as the Steelers should be, no, but the Steelers are a team with issues that we should not overlook here, especially with them on the road. One, they have a very limited running game right now. Who knows, it could blow up, but the Bengals run D has been surprisingly decent so far this year giving up just 82 yards a game. Add that to no Troy Polamalu in the defensive backfield and Palmer to Ochocinco could be in effect the entire game. If I were a betting man, I might pick the Bengals outright at +170…but I’m not so take the points and count your winnings in a Scrooge McDuck-like money bin when I am right.
DENVER -1 at Oakland
Only reason I am taking Denver here is because their defense has been doing everything right for them to win games and I don’t see that stopping against an offense prone to so many mistakes as the Raiders. This line is probably good to up to 4 points, but with Denver as a slight fave, you can take advantage and bet it medium-hard like…like…like i dunno what actually is medium-hard. If you can tell me what is medium-hard, write in and let me know. I know what wont be medium-hard though…your dickus after you win this mother. Nail it shut.
Indianapolis at Arizona UNDER 48
I struggled with this one, I really did. Both teams are definitely capable of winning this game. Indy is the most unimpressive 2-0 team in the league (next to Denver i guess) and Arizona, well they showed last week why they made it to the super bowl (their offense can be explosive, like nitroglycerin level combustion type shit). This game however, I think there will be a lot of field goals, rather than TDs, keeping the score down. Why do I think that? NO REASON WHATSOEVER. I just had to make a pick to placate you asses. WHAT DO YOU WANT FROM ME? BLOOD? …..ok….ok…just take the Under and we’ll call it a day.
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
CAROLINA +9 at Dallas
Dallas’ defense has 0 sacks on the year, gives up on average 129 yards and 1 TD a game on the ground to running backs and has allowed 303 yards and 1 1/2 TD per game to quarterbacks. What do I smell here? I smell a get healthy game for Carolina and the UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK! Even if Dallas wins their 2nd game at home, there is no way their defense keeps this score to 9 points. They will be lucky if they win by a field goal here, if they win at all. There are very few defenses out there that Jake Delhomme can feel comfortable playing right now, but this has to be one of them. Sure, Carolina’s D isnt anything to write home about right now, but Tony Romo will always screw up somehow and find a way to keep this game close. Take the road dog and never look back, don’t look back because you might get shot (thanks Truthaboutit)…speaking of that, here’s a musical interlude before the Lock of the Week.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 at Tampa Bay
Look, no bones about it (the fuck does that mean anyway?), Tampa Bay is a really, and I am talking REALLY, bad professional football team. If Byron Leftwich is your starting quarterback, because he’s actually better than everyone else on your team, then you have a bad team. When your 3rd string running back, coming off of two catastrophic knee injuries on the same knee, beats out a high priced free agent acquisition and one other person for the starting tailback job…you have a BAD football team. Meanwhile, Eli keeps finding newer and younger people to throw the ball to and dammit, he’s actually turning into a decent football player. Their running backs are fantastic, the line does its job admirably and their defense is one of the tops in the league. Why the hell is this line under a touchdown? Hammer it. Hammer it into the ground. Make your bookie bend to your will. Take them to the cleaners for all the times that they took money that was rightfully yours. Take the Giants for God’s sake.
And while you’re in NYC, celebrating your win, hit up my favorite bar in the LES, Local 138 on Ludlow St (Stanton & Rivington). You might even find Mustafa there sucking down his 10th Strongbow of the night. No midgets or nothing, but they do have a burger joint next door with some tasty ass food. Get the fries…they are worth the calories.